{"id":7151,"date":"2021-07-26T14:04:13","date_gmt":"2021-07-26T14:04:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/?p=7151"},"modified":"2021-08-14T08:01:09","modified_gmt":"2021-08-14T08:01:09","slug":"39-what-if-covid-vaccinations-are-80-placebo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/minding-corona\/39-what-if-covid-vaccinations-are-80-placebo","title":{"rendered":"39. What if COVID Vaccinations are 80% Placebo?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This question still needs to be asked given the probability, lack of disproof, and immensity of the consequences.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

July 25, 2021<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 <\/strong><\/td>Daily<\/strong><\/strong><\/td>Total<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Cases worldwide<\/td>492.082<\/strong><\/strong><\/td>194,374,131<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Deaths worldwide<\/td>8.299<\/strong><\/td>4.168.100<\/strong><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I want as many people as possible to get vaccinated.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m the opposite of an anti-vaxxer. [see: \u201cHow to Make Someone Take His Vaccination<\/a>\u201d]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We need good science, as much as possible. This requires good rationality. This requires a good view of reality. In reality, there is no choice as to what one perchance wants or does not want to see \u2015 including the deeper aspects of the human mind. [see: \u201cThe Basic Cognitive Illusion<\/a>\u201d]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Surprisingly?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also to me, 80% would be surprisingly high, but not unimaginable. We’ve seen comparable things in the history of medicine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I use the image of a whirlpool in which virus- and mind-related factors enhance each other. [see: \u201cCOVID-Whirlpool<\/a>\u201d] Thus, the virus may be 100% needed, and still, mind-related factors may also be needed to get the morbid or even deadly whirlpool going. The vaccine\u2019s placebogenic help to drop the mind factors to below a threshold may be enough. The ‘placebo’ may in this case also be thought of as a diminishment of nocebo. One can think of it as taking a few steps towards inside or outside a whirlpool. Not much is needed for a huge difference. For several reasons, it’s still important to know what is really happening. [see: \u201cWhy it Matters to Know the Real Effectiveness<\/a>.\u201d] It is unfathomable to me to see the absence of research, and even the active denial of researchers in this. I just do not get it. Additionally, there is general denial by the population globally. This doesn\u2019t show the power of (dis)belief. That has been shown by other research well enough. But it sure shows the amount of (dis)believers. Multiplicate and be surprised of nothing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Logically, if you have more than one +\/- necessary condition to a consequence, and you take out any of them, the consequence is +\/- not reached anymore. In COVID, young age is such a condition. In my view, mind-related factors (\u2018stress\u2019) are another one. Of course, \u2018stress\u2019 as a category is much too blunt. [see: \u201cNot Stress but Meaning is a Cause of Disease.<\/a>\u201d] Note that since the start, practically no experimental research has been done regarding the causal influence of the mind on COVID progression. The few small studies that I know of were positive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

COVID may be pretty much a psycho-somatic disease, with the mind playing a causal role in COVID progression to an as yet unknown degree. [see: \u201cThe Role of Social Nocebo in COVID-19<\/a>\u201d] Circumstantial evidence tells a story with virus and<\/em> mind at the center. I urge everybody to take this seriously. [see: \u201cMinding COVID: a Different Story<\/a>\u201d]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About placebo and nocebo<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s not entirely correct to speak exclusively about the placebo effect of a vaccine. It\u2019s possibly as much about the diminishment of nocebo through feeling the safety of being vaccinated. [see: \u201cIs Social Nocebo Real?<\/a>\u201d] These concepts have fuzzy borders. For the sake of easiness, I keep talking about placebo in this text.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Suppose there is an 80% placebo effect of vaccination. Even so, there would be a 20% effect of the \u2018naked\u2019 vaccine. More importantly, the 80% placebo would need the vaccine itself to be realized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you, dear reader, would think that we would just need to grab the placebo effect and leave the vaccine in the bottle, I would advise you to think some more. It\u2019s by far not that simple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

7-day average COVID deaths on the 24th<\/sup> of July<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I did the same exercise as on the 3rd<\/sup> of June 2021, comparing last year to this, and coming to the same overall picture:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/td>2020<\/strong><\/td>2021<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Belgium<\/td>2<\/td>1<\/td><\/tr>
Worldwide<\/td>6.207<\/td>8.109<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Is this positive or negative? In my view, we\u2019re not where we want to be. There\u2019s still a huge need to use every available instrument, even ourselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Again, taking a few other European countries, same day of same month, 7-day averages:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/td>2020<\/strong><\/td>2021<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Italy<\/td>8<\/td>12<\/td><\/tr>
Spain<\/td>2<\/td>15<\/td><\/tr>
Germany<\/td>6<\/td>20<\/td><\/tr>
Netherlands<\/td>1<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
France<\/td>9<\/td>21<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These countries + Belgium together:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

together:<\/td>28<\/td>72<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As you can see, there were 2.5 x more deaths yesterday (7-day average) than precisely a year ago. Meanwhile, in all these countries, vaccinations are fully on their way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So is the delta-variant, and so are other variants that we don\u2019t yet know. Several may be brooding in remote places or even in Europe. The more we whirl around geographically, the better the virus likes it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, most of the mortality happens in the group of non-vaccinated people. The issue is not with this but with what is happening under the hood.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let’s look at the data from some other countries (the same list as on the 3rd<\/sup> of June), 7-day averages:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/td>2020<\/strong><\/td>2021<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
US<\/td>952<\/td>252<\/td><\/tr>
UK<\/td>10<\/td>64<\/td><\/tr>
Israel<\/td>8<\/td>1<\/td><\/tr>
Mexico<\/td>777<\/td>297<\/td><\/tr>
Brazil<\/td>1.097<\/td>1.105<\/td><\/tr>
China<\/td>0<\/td>0<\/td><\/tr>
Japan<\/td>1<\/td>12<\/td><\/tr>
India<\/td>388<\/td>478<\/td><\/tr>
Lithuania<\/td>0<\/td>1<\/td><\/tr>
Hungary<\/td>0<\/td>1<\/td><\/tr>
Argentina<\/td>197<\/td>311<\/td><\/tr>
Colombia<\/td>250<\/td>366<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In the US, the situation is much better now than a year ago. The whole world remembers the mental turmoil of last year, the politicization, the panic and despair. I dare say these may have been crucial factors. This accords well with the minding-corona hypothesis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What also strikes me are the huge ups and downs in individual countries. There may be several explanations for this. One of them is a whirlpool phenomenon in which the mind plays a substantial role.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About the adversary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the virus as a conglomerate of all viral particles globally, we have a flexible \u2018adversary.\u2019 It continually changes. Its tentacles (variants) constantly spread in many directions. Its one goal is to be successful as a conglomerate, which one can see as an organism in its own right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Its \u2018thinking\u2019 is done through sheer trial and error. It doesn\u2019t want to kill us. It wants to use us. We\u2019re its fertile ground. If it kills us all, it will also disappear. Unfortunately, \u2018trial and error\u2019 isn\u2019t an ingenious strategy. This means that a far deadlier version may be on its way. Many scientists were expecting this already before COVID. It\u2019s one more reason to take our mind-related resources seriously and try to make the most of it, not only for the sake of now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the standpoint of the virus, its strategy is efficient enough for the time being. Its main thrust seems to lie in speed and flexibility, tricking our psycho-neuro-immune system while not looking back in searching for new ground. This makes us vulnerable in specific ways and possibly for yet a long time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The huge initial COVID studies<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I still see and hear experts talk about the Pfizer & Moderna studies (together 65.000 subjects) and others as double-blindmega-studies showing huge efficacy. This is wrong in the following sense:<\/p>\n\n\n\n