{"id":3307,"date":"2020-07-30T15:46:29","date_gmt":"2020-07-30T15:46:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/?p=3307"},"modified":"2020-07-31T22:13:26","modified_gmt":"2020-07-31T22:13:26","slug":"autumn-of-covid-disaster2-already","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/minding-corona\/autumn-of-covid-disaster2-already","title":{"rendered":"20. Autumn of COVID: Disaster2 Already?"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p><strong>(Re-)emergence<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>COVID (re-)emerges in all kinds of countries where strict measures have not been maintained. This includes countries where the virus has never well receded (such as the US), countries where it has not peaked before (such as parts of Australia), and countries that saw a huge decrease after disaster (such as Spain and Belgium). Everywhere, the virus is waiting for a chance, while not waiting for humans to be ready. The COVID-virus doesn\u2019t reward previous efforts.<\/p>\n<p>We don\u2019t see Influenza flaring up now. Influenza is seasonal. Does this mean that COVID is not seasonal? The most pertinent question concerning the near future in Europe and the US: Will COVID flare up in the autumn on top of what we see now? The answer, as far as I can see, is: of course. While autumn is not yet the big Influenza\/Corona period of the year \u2013 which is wintertime \u2013 COVID shows to be more infective and lethal than Influenza. That doesn\u2019t mean it\u2019s less seasonal.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Seasonality + Lethality =&gt; Disaster\u00b2?<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>We will be taken by surprise, apparently, again. This time, we should know better. I see many people and companies, organizations, and politicians act as if we know \u2018the enemy\u2019 by now, and are better prepared than earlier this year for what\u2019s coming.<\/p>\n<p>But in a way, we are not. As mentioned, the fact that the virus can surge in the summer doesn\u2019t mean it will hit less in autumn. I see this deduction being made, but it\u2019s just plainly logically wrong. It probably means that the virus will hit <em>even harder<\/em> in the autumn and beyond.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, we are better prepared for something like what happened from March 2020 onwards. The problem is: what is coming is different in two respects: People are even less mentally ready (being tired, sad, horrified, bored, burned out, demotivated), and the virus may hit harder because, among other things, lockdown is economically seen even less evident. On top of these, the COVID-whirlpool [see: &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog?p=3196\">Covid Whirlpool<\/a>&#8220;] will take us towards new territory without us knowing what is happening. This new territory within the whirlpool is made up by ourselves, as well as by the virus. It will be surprising once more mainly because of its subconceptual nature. Thus:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>We think we can take this challenge as a linear process, building up defenses.<\/li>\n<li>The reality will be exponential again.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Humanity seldom experienced a lack of arrogance. The accompanying disillusion will become another part of the whirlpool. Now, we think we are intelligent enough to \u2018control the beast just by putting more conceptual defense on top of defense.\u2019 If needed, we build the wall higher. That may be OK in many circumstances, but not if something comes flying over the wall. A simple wall \u2013 as construction of bricks \u2013 doesn&#8217;t suffice. We need to use our subconceptual wings. See previous chapters\/blog texts. Without them, we get into disaster\u00b2.<\/p>\n<p>Do I seem to be promoting my idea that the subconceptual level is crucial in the COVID happening? As much as I would like to be wrong in prediction, from the health-related side, there is little chance. My opinion is based on many elements and robust synthesis. Virologists are medical specialists in half of the matter. I am a specialist in the other half. No bird flies on one wing.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Good, bad, ugly<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I have a Ph.D. in mind-body medical science, not in economics. My view from the latter side is limited. I try to put together in a scheme what strikes me as relevant. That is, from a helicopter view, not much.<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"264\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><u>The good<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Remdesivir<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Immunoglobulins<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Dexamethasone<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Anticoagulants and other support<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Face masks are available.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">They also protect against other viruses.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Contact tracing<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Social distancing<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Many businesses are better prepared.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">We (should) react more quickly.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\" width=\"265\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>The bad<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>No vaccine<\/p>\n<p>Medications relieve only slightly.<\/p>\n<p>Snotty children \u2013 and adults<\/p>\n<p>Post-traumatic + new stress<\/p>\n<p>We may need better face masks.<\/p>\n<p>Problems with contact tracing<\/p>\n<p>Less money available<\/p>\n<p>The economy demands human contacts.<\/p>\n<p>People may get complacent.<\/p>\n<p>Many people are fed up.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"529\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><u>The ugly<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">COVID-whirlpool +++<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Again, we don\u2019t see this coming.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">It may be (much) harsher.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>What I don\u2019t mention in the scheme, because it\u2019s very uncertain, is the possibility of viral mutations. Also, economically, there may be more critical elements. This is going to cost another few trillion, if not the entire economy and world peace. Of course, the very rich will rebound. On top of this, it will take a lot of professional lives and livelihoods. For instance, fitness centers, bars, and restaurants will most probably not remain open for more than a few weeks this year. Mass gatherings will not be possible, let alone advisable, in the autumn nor winter time. Other sectors will surely be hit hard too. Economists may know what this means to the treasury, banks, and people\u2019s money. More pending foreclosures are still due to the consequences of the first wave. This adds to the whirlpool.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Taking yourself seriously<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>As a human being, you have a lot inside that has not been explored, let alone put to proper usage. We could use this well in the present situation. However, a basic cultural stream prevents most people from doing so. This makes them dependent. What they are dependent on (people, organizations, cultural ideas even) profits from this situation. This doesn\u2019t mean that it\u2019s necessarily done with conscious insight. It\u2019s a mechanism, used in many places, together forming a stream with strong current and in which individual people flow along. This stream&#8217;s sturdy current makes some people misinterpret a flowing along with it as strength, a standing strong against it as weakness. Moreover, there is sometimes aggression involved, such as from those who flow in this stream towards those who don&#8217;t. This makes some people see an enemy where is none, and a friend where is really the foe. Guess what happens. The future will be created by a transcendence \u2013 or lack \u2013 of this. It&#8217;s a time in which the free and the brave can stand up.<\/p>\n<p>Yes, taking yourself seriously is a worthy cause. It doesn\u2019t necessarily bring money or status. It brings worthiness. I hope this remains valuable to many. I know it will be more valuable in the future. I have been exploring it \u2013 what I call <em>Inner Strength<\/em> \u2013 for quite a few years now. On one of my vagrancies, I have made an in-depth analysis of human being in this regard and described it in <em>The Journey Towards Compassionate A.I.<\/em><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>What have I done?<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Too little. The Aurelis app is now available [see: \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog?p=3275\">Free App to Relieve COVID<\/a>\u201d]. A.I. enhancements are possible, including Lisa [see: \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog?p=2486\">Lisa<\/a>\u201d]. Other developments, translations, visibility, connections, B2B cooperation, etc. are appropriate. The app can be made more encompassing.<\/p>\n<p>I have written and am writing this book and others, available at Amazon. It all lacks good marketing, due to a continually being stuck in a catch-22 of finances and possibilities. As a feeble excuse, I can point out that a basic cultural stream as I just described doesn\u2019t allow for the usual marketing efforts to be successful in the countercurrent direction. The stream honors what flows in the course of the stream itself. Especially tricky is the fact that it&#8217;s hardly visible and yet pervades everything. This is typical for broadly distributed patterns. It\u2019s why people don\u2019t always change easily, and cultures also don\u2019t change easily. On the positive side, when a change is finally realized, it&#8217;s quite stable.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Legacy<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>If we don\u2019t collectively take action, I look with horror at a preventable disaster\u00b2. Without a concerted effort, it will sadly be stuff for a detailed postscript to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/gp\/product\/B08BH7TXSF\/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_hsch_vapi_tkin_p1_i0\">MINDING CORONA<\/a>. Then this text becomes a legacy of what could have been, dated midsummer 2020. In a few years, using A.I. means and real-world evidence, a proof of what is happening (either or not realized) in the undercurrent will be possible. I would like to take part in that and intend to give it my best shot. At present, we \u2018only\u2019 have more than enough stringent cues, no directly COVID-related experimental science \u2013 which would not be possible right now and with the usual means. Anyone who cares to think about this with a straight mind carries responsibility.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>As a physician in mindless matter, I also have just a few recommendations that I don&#8217;t encounter elsewhere, <u>for what it&#8217;s worth<\/u>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>I recommend, with caution, the use of small doses of acetylsalicylic acid (Aspirin) when in quarantine or hospitalized. I&#8217;d rather see it as a preventive measure of physical support instead of an additional medical weapon. Of course, this needs to be scientifically investigated. I found one article in &#8216;Medical Hypotheses.&#8217; That&#8217;s it. Without contra-indication, the use of 50 mg daily cannot harm.<\/li>\n<li>When passing someone outside, closing your mouth is recommended, diminishing the spread of viruses. Every little bit helps.<\/li>\n<li>Not talking loudly in company is better. When on a bus, for instance, it will probably make a difference.<\/li>\n<li>Follow the rules, mindlessly perhaps. OK, that said, try to motivate yourself \u2013 and others \u2013 first. Following rules on top of motivation is different. There is mind involved.<\/li>\n<li>Carry the Aurelis app on your smartphone. The sheer thought that it&#8217;s there may act like a placebo. In my view, placebo is quite mindless. Besides, in due time, you might think of applying it and come to appreciate it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div data-object_id=\"3307\" class=\"cbxwpbkmarkwrap cbxwpbkmarkwrap_no_cat cbxwpbkmarkwrap-post \"><a  data-redirect-url=\"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3307\"  data-display-label=\"0\" data-show-count=\"0\" data-bookmark-label=\" \"  data-bookmarked-label=\" \"  data-loggedin=\"0\" data-type=\"post\" data-object_id=\"3307\" class=\"cbxwpbkmarktrig  cbxwpbkmarktrig-button-addto\" title=\"Bookmark This\" href=\"#\"><span class=\"cbxwpbkmarktrig-label\"  style=\"display:none;\" > <\/span><\/a> <div  data-type=\"post\" data-object_id=\"3307\" class=\"cbxwpbkmarkguestwrap\" id=\"cbxwpbkmarkguestwrap-3307\"><div class=\"cbxwpbkmarkguest-message\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"cbxwpbkmarkguesttrig_close\"><\/a><h3 class=\"cbxwpbookmark-title cbxwpbookmark-title-login\">Please login to bookmark<\/h3>\n\t\t<form name=\"loginform\" id=\"loginform\" action=\"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/wp-login.php\" method=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<p class=\"login-username\">\n\t\t\t\t<label for=\"user_login\">Username or Email Address<\/label>\n\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"log\" id=\"user_login\" class=\"input\" value=\"\" size=\"20\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t<p class=\"login-password\">\n\t\t\t\t<label for=\"user_pass\">Password<\/label>\n\t\t\t\t<input type=\"password\" name=\"pwd\" id=\"user_pass\" class=\"input\" value=\"\" size=\"20\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<p class=\"login-remember\"><label><input name=\"rememberme\" type=\"checkbox\" id=\"rememberme\" value=\"forever\" \/> Remember Me<\/label><\/p>\n\t\t\t<p class=\"login-submit\">\n\t\t\t\t<input type=\"submit\" name=\"wp-submit\" id=\"wp-submit\" class=\"button button-primary\" value=\"Log In\" \/>\n\t\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"redirect_to\" value=\"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3307\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/form><\/div><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Re-)emergence COVID (re-)emerges in all kinds of countries where strict measures have not been maintained. This includes countries where the virus has never well receded (such as the US), countries where it has not peaked before (such as parts of Australia), and countries that saw a huge decrease after disaster (such as Spain and Belgium). <a class=\"moretag\" href=\"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/minding-corona\/autumn-of-covid-disaster2-already\">Read the full article&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n<div data-object_id=\"3307\" class=\"cbxwpbkmarkwrap cbxwpbkmarkwrap_no_cat cbxwpbkmarkwrap-post \"><a  data-redirect-url=\"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3307\"  data-display-label=\"0\" data-show-count=\"0\" data-bookmark-label=\" \"  data-bookmarked-label=\" \"  data-loggedin=\"0\" data-type=\"post\" data-object_id=\"3307\" class=\"cbxwpbkmarktrig  cbxwpbkmarktrig-button-addto\" title=\"Bookmark This\" href=\"#\"><span class=\"cbxwpbkmarktrig-label\"  style=\"display:none;\" > <\/span><\/a> <div  data-type=\"post\" data-object_id=\"3307\" class=\"cbxwpbkmarkguestwrap\" id=\"cbxwpbkmarkguestwrap-3307\"><div class=\"cbxwpbkmarkguest-message\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"cbxwpbkmarkguesttrig_close\"><\/a><h3 class=\"cbxwpbookmark-title cbxwpbookmark-title-login\">Please login to bookmark<\/h3>\n\t\t<form name=\"loginform\" id=\"loginform\" action=\"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/wp-login.php\" method=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<p class=\"login-username\">\n\t\t\t\t<label for=\"user_login\">Username or Email Address<\/label>\n\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" name=\"log\" id=\"user_login\" class=\"input\" value=\"\" size=\"20\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t<p class=\"login-password\">\n\t\t\t\t<label for=\"user_pass\">Password<\/label>\n\t\t\t\t<input type=\"password\" name=\"pwd\" id=\"user_pass\" class=\"input\" value=\"\" size=\"20\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<p class=\"login-remember\"><label><input name=\"rememberme\" type=\"checkbox\" id=\"rememberme\" value=\"forever\" \/> Remember Me<\/label><\/p>\n\t\t\t<p class=\"login-submit\">\n\t\t\t\t<input type=\"submit\" name=\"wp-submit\" id=\"wp-submit\" class=\"button button-primary\" value=\"Log In\" \/>\n\t\t\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" name=\"redirect_to\" value=\"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3307\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/form><\/div><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3310,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/aurelis.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/498-1.jpg?fit=960%2C564&ssl=1","jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9Fdiq-Rl","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3307"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3307"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3307\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3324,"href":"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3307\/revisions\/3324"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3310"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3307"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3307"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aurelis.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3307"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}